This year (2023), officially announced defence budget of China amounts to $225 Bn and that of United States $858 Bn. However, the international institutions keeping tag of military spending by various countries around the world believe that undeclared Chinese military spending every year is generally remains similar to that of US.

There has been a sudden jump in defence budgets by many countries this year. The defence budget of United States is $858 Bn, China $225 Bn, India $52.8 Bn, South Korea $42.1 Bn, Taiwan $19 Bn, Philippines $4.28 Bn, Singapore $12.3 Bn and Malaysia is $3.9 Bn. In 2022, Japan doubled its military budget from $2.4 Bn to around $4Bn, which Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida calls it turning point on National Security Policy as they are shading Pacifism and amending their constitution after second world war.

The announcement by China regarding four time jump in defence spending was announced in National People’s congress (NPC), which is the Chinese parliament. This was announced by outgoing PM, Li Keqiang and he said that the Chinese military must be prepared for all contingencies across the board, develop new military strategic guidance, devote greater energy to training under combat conditions and make well coordinated efforts to strengthen military work in all directions and domains.

During his address, he indirectly pointed towards ‘Ladhak Standoff’ with India , where he said, “we carried out-operations in a firm and flexible way, effectively conducted major missions relating to border defence, maritime right protection, counter terrorism and stability maintenance”. He further stressed that external attempts to suppress and contain China are escalating and PLA must intensify military training and preparedness across its border.

China aggressive design in TAR (Tibet Autonomous Region) opposite India’s Northern borders has been stepped up. New Chinese Boarder Law, construction of more than 900 dual purpose modern villages (Xiaokang villages) specially opposite sensitive and disputed areas along LAC, construction of strategic railway network through some of disputed areas upto Xinjiang and probably connecting it with CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). Constructions of massive dams, air bases and airfields, nuclear silos are aggressive design and postures which are increasing on regular basis. After ‘Galwan Clash’ in June 2020 in eastern Ladhak, China has not stopped its provocation in central and eastern part of LAC, specially opposite Arunachal Pradesh. ‘Yangtse Standoff’ in Tawang sector in December 2022 is case in point.

So, is this increase in defence spending related to India or Taiwan or both. As per top military serving general of United States, General Mike Minihan, China could militarily invade Taiwan as early as 2025. We must also take in account that Xi Jing Ping has asked its military to be ready and prepare for war as security situations are uncertain. He has already laid down to build world class military force by 2027. The time line coincides with the centenary anniversary of PLA and also coincides with the time frame of Taiwan take over.

China military drills and rehearsals are in full swing both in TAR and South China Sea. The violation of Taiwan’s air space zone has become new normal. Recently Taiwan’s defence minister Chiu Kuo- Cheng has warned for a “sudden entry” of Chinese forces in Taiwan.

China hegemonic behaviour has become more assertive in nature with India on LAC and in Indo-Pacific. It has set its eye in South China Sea and also wants to control the rim countries in Indo-Pacific. It has increased its defence budget for eight consecutive years under Xi Jing Ping, who is also the chairman of China’s military commission. China does put a false explanation about its military preparation in all forums and says that its future is linked with the future of the world and its military modernisation does not pose threat to any country. It is more for maintaining regional stability and peace. But, what it says and what it practices are two different things altogether. India should be very cautious and must prepare itself militarily on war footing to take on unpredictable China in short-term, mid-term and long-term perspectives.