“Is it US alone or US & its close alley or Ukraine or Russia itself?” Let’s analyse the unfolding mysteries.

Nord Stream 1 & 2 were built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea and are majority owned by the Russian state-owned gas company, Gazprom.

The Baltic Sea through Gulf of Finland, from where the Nord Stream pipelines are passing through is most controlled and monitored areas in the world. Russia, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and US carryout maritime and arial patrolling and surveillance of these areas. It requires real covert operations with connivance to carry out such attack. The complexity of these pipelines and blowing up at number of places requires technical and logistic capabilities.

The Lineup and Unfolding of Mysteries

In February 2022, shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion, in a joint press conference of US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, “there will be no longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it”

Just two day prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia officially recognised Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) on 21 February 2022, as sovereign states. Next day, on 22 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ,who had been in favour of the project Nord Stream 2, suspended its certification and thus shelved the commissioning of the second pipeline.

The Russia & European Union gas dispute flared up in March 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia and the major EU countries clashed over the issue of payment for pipeline natural gas exported to Europe by Russia’s Gazprom.

In June 2022, Russia cut the flow of gas through Pipeline 1 by more than half, in July it stopped and resumed it again, and in September 2022, it stopped it altogether.

On 26 September, an explosion was detected originating from Nord Stream 2. The pressure drop in the pipeline was reported and natural gas began escaping to the surface southeast of the Danish Island, Bornholm. 17 hours later, the same occurred to Nord Stream 1, resulting in three separate leaks northeast of Bornholm. All three affected pipes were rendered inoperable. The leaks were located in international water but within the economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. Prior to the leaks, the pipelines had not been operating but were filled with natural gas.

Initially three leaks were reported in pipelines, subsequently fourth leak was discovered by Swedish coast guards. It is believed that the explosives were dropped or planted much before and then detonated. Sweden’s Security Service (Sapo) feels that it is an act of ‘aggravated sabotage’.

On 27 September 2022, one day before the leaks Poland and Norway opened the Baltic Pipe running through Denmark, bringing in gas from the North Sea , rather than from Russia as the Nord Stream pipelines do which itself important to keep in mind for pin pointing and establishing the mistry.

Speculations: Who Did It?

Russia first accused the United Kingdom, and later the United States, of being responsible for the sabotage. Putin called the attack on the pipeline “an unprecedented act of international terrorism”. However, west started saying that it has been done by Russia itself in connection with wedging a Energy war with west.

Number of mysterious theories and wild investigation reports have been coming out in media specially after ‘Seymour-Hersh’ revelation who is an outstanding investigative and prize winning journalist. He revealed that, why America blew up Nord Stream gas pipeline. Let’s analyse all.

Is America Behind Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage?

Amid Russia’s buildup on the Ukrainian border in early February 2022, President Biden had warned that, “If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it”. Many are interpreting this statement as a kind of advance admission of guilt.

On 8th February 2023, American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article on his ‘Substack’ page in which he alleged that the attack was ordered by the White House and carried out utilizing American and Norwegian assets. The post relied on a single anonymous source, whom Hersh described as having “direct knowledge of the operational planning”.

This revelation by Hersh was quickly endorsed by Russian officials and state media, primarily relied on what appeared to be a single unnamed source, who Hersh wrote had “direct knowledge of the operational planning” for the sabotage.

German Der Spiegel, has also reported that the United States Central Intelligence Agency, (CIA) had warned the German Government many weeks before the blast regarding possible sabotage to the gas pipelines. It has further brought out that Nord Stream 2 had already stopped entirely without explosives two days before Russia invaded Ukraine, and that what happened is exactly what Biden and Scholz had said would happen. At the same time, The New York Times had also reported regarding the CIA warning various European governments sometime in June regarding these attacks.

Further, the Poland former foreign affairs and defence minister Radek Sikorski just after the blast had twitted “Thank you, USA”, next to a photo of bubbling water above the pipeline damaged by blast further reinforces this narrative.

Why did US Aircraft stayed back after 14 NATO Allies BALTOPS-22 exercise in Baltic Sea ?

In June 2022, 14 NATO allies along with Finland and Sweden, participated in the BALTOPS-22 (Baltic Operations) exercise. Prior to the blast in September 2022, US military helicopters reportedly circled for hours over the explosion area near the Bornholm Island. These chopper movements coincides the dates of blowing up of pipelines.

The ‘Flightradar 24’ operational in this area had recorded an unidentified helicopter without any icon and identifying signs, hovering over the blast site.

The trajectory of the flight of US choppers with callsign ‘FFAB123’ also matches with the leak sites in Baltic Sea.Tacking the tail number of 3 of the helicopters has revealed that these are US Navy multi-mission, ‘Sikorsky SH-60 Seahawk’.

The first explosion on the Nord Stream pipeline was recorded near the Bornholm Island in Baltic Sea where BALTOPS-22 was held and ‘USS Kearsarge’ was reported to be in that area prior to the blast. US forces had also carried out test for mine hunting by underwater drones, off the coast of the Bornholm Island. Even after the exercise in end June 2022, US Sixth Fleet remained in Baltic Sea.

Sweden and Denmark seismic reporting station has reported strong under water explosions before the first leak.

Why Russians themselves could have done ?

As per CNN report, the European security officials had observed Russian Navy support ships nearby where the leaks later occurred on 26 and 27 September 2022. One week prior this, Russian submarines were also observed in this area.

The helicopters were spotted on September 2 and likely took off from the USS Kearsarge (LHD-3)

The former head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) Gerhard Schindler, alleged that Russia sabotaged the gas pipelines to justify their halting of gas supplies prior to the explosion. He further says that, “halt in gas supplies can now be justified simply by pointing to the defective pipelines, without having to advance alleged turbine problems or other unconvincing arguments for breaking supply contracts”.

However, The Washington Post has reported that, after months of investigation there was so far no conclusive evidence that Russia was behind the attack, and numerous European and US officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all.

Involvement of Pro-Ukrainian Group

In March 2023, New York Times came out with yet another possibility that US officials have recently seen new intelligence suggesting that a pro-Ukraine, but not necessarily Ukraine-backed, group was behind the sabotage. According to the Times, the unnamed US officials who have reviewed the intelligence said that the group was likely made up of Ukrainian or of Russian nationals who were opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to these reports, investigators found explosive residues in a yacht that had been rented by six people with professionally forged passports, for a Polish company with two Ukrainian owners.

Why this theory is not credible because such a small vessel was used for the sabotage. The force of the explosion and the widely dispersed debris implies that several hundreds of kilograms of explosives were used, an amount that is impractical to transport with such a small sailboat. Moreover, accurately placing the explosives on the bottom above the pipeline at 60-80 meters depth from a small surface vessel is practically impossible.

Involvement of Other Countries

On 29 October 2022, Russia accused a unit of the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy of sabotaging the gas pipeline. This acquisition has been denied by the UK.

Jeremy Scahill of The Intercept also of the view that the U.S. has authorized, then lied about, numerous covert actions throughout its history and that recent disclosures to the media about intelligence pointing to Ukrainian partisans may be an example of “narrative washing”. At this point, however, there is no evidence linking the US to the sabotage.

Russia is aggressively asking for an independent international inquiry by UN for the sabotaging Nord Stream pipelines and bought a resolution. On 27 March 2023, a UN Security Council motion held but failed. Only China and Brazil supporting the motion, while the remaining 12 council members abstained.

US,Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Britain and any of the nordic nation or nations and had a plausible interest in disabling the pipelines. Mysteries and revelations are unfolding, world has to wait for considerable period of time to know the truth.